sbdcsierra Chapters 1236 and 1245: What should you do if you knew about the stock market crash in advance?!
Chapters 1236 and 1245: What should you do if you knew about the stock market crash in advance?!
Chapters 1236 and 1245: What should you do if you knew about the stock market crash in advance?!
If you knew in advance that the US stock market would crash, how could you profit by shorting it during that process?
This is a question that Naoki Nagayama saw on Zhihu in his previous life. Many individual investors and institutions have different approaches, but one thing is clear in general.
As long as your judgment is correct, you will definitely be able to make money!
"Yuan Tai Sang"
Naoki Nagayama's tone seemed somewhat erratic.
"If you predicted a stock market crash three months from now, what do you think we should do now?!"
"what?"
Nakai Genta was still reeling from the "unprecedentedly magnificent operation" when Nagayama Naoki suddenly uttered something even more chilling, leaving him momentarily speechless.
"what!!!"
"Naoki-san, are you saying there will be a stock market crash in three months?!"
“I didn’t say that!” Naoki Nagayama shook his head. “I only said ‘if’!”
“That’s it.”
Nakai Genta stood up excitedly, feeling somewhat flustered and apprehensive, but also secretly excited and ecstatic. Fortunately, having been in the financial market for several years, he managed to calm himself down after taking a few deep breaths.
After he sat down again, he unscrewed the screwdriver on the small refrigerator in his office and took a big gulp of the cold drink.
"Is Naoki-san confident?!"
If an ordinary person claimed to have predicted the stock market crash, Nakai Genta would definitely slap him and tell him to get lost. Anyone trying to act like a prophet in front of him, Nakai Genta.
Do you really think I, Nakai Genta, am so easily fooled?!
However, since the person who said this was Naoki Nagayama, Genta Nakai had to be cautious. Ever since he met Naoki Nagayama, his several operations in the financial market had been so amazing that people couldn't help but exclaim that he was a genius!
"I already said it was a prediction~"
Naoki Nagayama doesn't rely on insider information anymore. What kind of guy could possibly have insider information about something like a stock market crash?!
"However, since the beginning of the year, major investment institutions around the world should have had a premonition that the scale of funds in the stock market has far exceeded that in the real economy, which is very dangerous in itself."
The Plaza Accord, signed by the five countries, did not have a significant impact on the exchange rates of the countries, but it stimulated the financial markets and attracted more funds to flow into the stock market, making the global stock market more prosperous.
"Actually, analysts at large foreign investment institutions all knew to some extent that problems would arise, but right now it's just a game of musical chairs, let's see who ends up with the biggest crash."
Nakai Genta had no expectations for Nagayama Naoki's subsequent analysis; he simply stared at Nagayama Naoki:
"Naoki-san, tell me, what should we do?!"
".Forehead."
Hearing his decisive words without a hint of doubt, Naoki Nagayama was somewhat surprised. Was he accepting this too quickly?
It seems my previous manipulation and brainwashing were quite effective; the mental imprint is now firmly imprinted in Nakai Genta's mind.
"I anticipate a major market upheaval and sharp decline around October."
After Naoki Nagayama finished speaking, he changed the subject.
“Yuan Tai-san should be quite familiar with the actual operations by now. Since you know about this future, tell me what to do?”
"Huh? Shall I say it?"
"Of course, you're the trader now! The objective is clear, the orders have been given, and the stock market is your battlefield from now on!"
"!!!"
Nakai Genta felt as if a fire had ignited in his chest. Knowing that changes were underway, this veteran of the financial markets was about to steer the ship of Shuyou Capital, setting sail towards its goal.
These were all thoughts in Nakai Genta's mind. In reality, Genta-san was quite pragmatic and quickly calmed down:
"Naoki-san, if there are only three months left, it's already a bit late to build up the warehouse."
In that case, we can use more traditional methods, such as short selling through margin trading and short selling through futures.
"These two methods are the simplest and most suitable for our current size."
Combined with the US and Japan, Naoki Nagayama himself has over $10 billion in funds, not to mention other funds controlled by Shuyu Capital, which together amount to approximately $6 million.
"Increasing leverage is easier to manage in Japan, but it might be more complicated in the United States."
Given Tree Capital's current reputation, it would be easy for them to get a short-term loan from a Japanese bank, but it would be much harder to get one from that shell company in the US, and it would also be troublesome to find a major brokerage firm.
"Furthermore, we also need to consider the reactions from regulatory agencies. Similarly, things are relatively easier in Japan, but if we're caught in the US for manipulating the stock market..."
Nakai Genta analyzed the current situation point by point. After managing Shuyou Capital for so long, he has gained comprehensive knowledge in all aspects. In particular, as the company grows in size, the intensity of supervision will increase exponentially.
If you're an ordinary investor and invest 10,000 yuan in the stock market, and you make ten times your initial investment, nobody will bother you. But if you have 1 billion yuan in the stock market and make only 100% of your investment, countless government departments will come to talk to you about it.
Those large investment institutions have complex backgrounds and relationships that are not easy to understand. Without power, one cannot protect the wealth in their hands.
"Sure enough, at this stage, it's impossible to avoid getting involved in politics!"
Naoki Nagayama sighed, and his resolve to support politicians strengthened.
Across from him, Nakai Genta was still talking, but Nagayama Naoki's mind had just been filled with too many things, and he was now somewhat dazed.
"Right now, Yuan Tai Sang is just an idea for us."
"Take these next couple of days to sort things out and come up with a concrete plan."
Nakai Genta nodded:
"Okay! Naoki-san, I feel like all sorts of thoughts are popping up right now, and I really need some time to think them over."
However, this kind of operation definitely can't be carried out by just the two of us. We also need to maintain confidentiality, but we can't tell the operators the truth.
"Haha, can we have a meeting to discuss this first? How to profit in a market crash?" Naoki Nagayama laughed. "Let's treat it as a brainstorming session and then create a simulation plan, which we'll call 'Trading Plan for Extreme Situations'."
"Then they said they would try operating according to the pre-arranged plan."
"By the time they finally realized what was happening, it was almost the final moment."
"."
It's like conducting live-fire exercises in the Gulf; it could turn into an island landing operation at any time!
As I left the building in Ginza, the things I had discussed with Nakai Genta and the memories I had suddenly recalled related to the stock market crash lingered in my mind, and for a moment I didn't even think about going home.
Looking around, Naoki Nagayama realized that the "Sanmai-ju" place he hadn't visited in a long time was not far away, so he turned and headed towards Sanmai-ju.
The distinctive green and ancient-style roof has made Sanmeiju a unique feature of the commercial street. Over the years, it has taken root in the bustling commercial street of reinforced concrete, attracting tourists and frequent visitors from nearby office buildings every day.
"Naoki-san?!"
The waitress, Akiki Matsumura, spotted Naoki Nagayama as he entered through the main entrance. Even though she hadn't seen him come for tea often, she still had a very strong impression of this famous boss.
"Ah, who are you?"
Naoki Nagayama was slightly embarrassed; he hadn't been there in a while and couldn't remember this unfamiliar waiter.
"Private Marseille, I can't remember your name!"
"Duh, I'm Matsumura Akiki. I haven't met Naoki-san many times, so it's normal that I don't remember him!"
Matsumura Akiki quickly waved her hand. She was very satisfied with her job at Sanmeiju. Her monthly salary of 30 yen plus the year-end bonus was better than some white-collar workers.
"I'll go inform Manager Sakakibara."
"."
Naoki Nagayama was speechless as he watched the waiter rush into the kitchen. "Why don't you at least take me in first?"
In just a few breaths, Sakakibara Chinatsu, dressed in a kimono, quickly emerged, a look of surprise on her face.
"Naoki Sansashi ignores you, it's been a long time since you've come to Sanmaiju for tea!"
"Chika-san, Sashibuli. It's just that now that you're married, you don't have much free time~"
Naoki Nagayama responded with a smile.
"How's business at Sanmeiju lately?"
"Hi, everyone's been very supportive of our business. Yasui-san went to get some new tea today, otherwise I could have reported to Naoki-san."
Sakakibara Chinatsu explained briefly, then clapped her hands and said playfully,
"Oh, look at me, Naoki-san, please come with me. The private room on the top floor has been reserved for you; we clean it every day."
"That's so thoughtful of you."
""
As you ascend the retro staircase, Naoki Nagayama has the leisure to appreciate the teahouse's furnishings. With the passage of time, the already antique decorations have become even more quaint and elegant, seemingly imbued with a Zen-like charm due to the teahouse's character.
"As expected, a teahouse like Sanmeiju needs the charm of history!"
"Yes, now the customers all say that Sanmeiju is like a century-old shop!"
Chinatsu Sakakibara smiled and led Naoki Nagayama to a private room on the top floor. After opening the partition door, there was an exquisite tea room inside. With the windows open, one could enjoy the bustling Ginza while drinking tea and chatting.
"Naoki-san, would you like to drink Gyokuro again?"
“Yes, thank you for your help.” Naoki Nagayama nodded.
"Please wait a moment, the tea and refreshments will be served shortly."
Once he was alone in the room, Naoki Nagayama gazed at the skyscrapers outside and the pedestrians coming and going on the street, his mind blank.
Information about the stock market crash gradually surfaced. He hadn't traded stocks much before, so what he knew was mostly important news, things he'd heard from others or read in interesting news articles, such as the market index never exceeding 3000.
However, at this time, a movie specifically about stock trading suddenly appeared: the financial comedy "The Big Short," starring Christian Bale as Batman.
It tells the story of how several Wall Street investment geniuses made huge profits by shorting the subprime market during the 08 subprime mortgage crisis.
In the past, when Naoki Nagayama recalled his movies, all the scenes would quickly come to mind. However, this time, "The Big Short" was a bit difficult, like squeezing toothpaste.
Because it contains many technical terms and financial jargon.
This is why movies about Wall Street finance are not very popular. The success of "The Big Short" should be attributed to the fact that the main actors are box office draws.
"People always blindly follow the crowd, like sheep. Isn't that ridiculous?!"
Naoki Nagayama uttered a line from "The Big Short," a sigh appearing in his eyes.
"Bubbles always burst, isn't that common sense?!"
Both films depict the bursting of a stock market bubble and the economic crisis that affected millions of people. The only difference between the film "The Big Short" and the bursting of Japan's bubble economy a year later was the cause of the bubble bursts.
"Isn't it obvious that greed makes people lose their minds?"
Those who frantically speculate on real estate are only interested in profit and disregard the consequences.
"Isn't it true that the truth often lies hidden beneath the surface of prosperity?"
Just like the golden age of neon lights.
"."
"A movie like this."
He sighed.
"If we wait until Tree Friends Capital has completely withdrawn before releasing the film, it will probably cause a backlash from everyone!"
Having made this judgment, Naoki Nagayama decided to keep the script for "The Big Short" hidden away in his personal savings account and not take it out unless absolutely necessary.
"However, it was still useful in preventing the subprime mortgage crisis."
After taking a sip of the premium Gyokuro tea brewed by Sakakibara Chinatsu, Naoki Nagayama smiled. "Forget about the economic crisis," he thought.
Drink today, for tomorrow we may die.
In the conference room at Ken-On headquarters, Akina was holding Natsuka and negotiating with people from the factory.
"The brand has already been registered. As Akina decided before, it will be called 'Bubble'."
Ken-On's designer, Hiroyo Ochi, helped register the relevant company and handed over the brand's documents to Akina.
Akina had originally considered a cute brand like dango, but it had already been registered, so the only option left was bubble.
"So the garment factory is called 'Bubble Factory'?"
Akina asked with a smile.
"Hi!"
Standing next to him, Mitsushi Muramatsu, dressed in a suit and tie and looking somewhat reserved, nodded. He was the manager of the small garment factory that was collaborating with them on this project.
I've received some clothing design drafts from Ochi Hiroshi before, but today I met the designer here and I never expected that the real designer would be the big star Nakamori Akina!
"Ms. Akina Nakamori, I'll put up the Bubble Factory sign when I get back!"
"Haha, there's no need to take it so seriously. I was just joking," Akina said with a smile. "However, this collaboration was signed by me personally and has nothing to do with Ken-On. So it's being done under the name 'Akina Nagayama'."
"Hey, I get it!"
Mitsushi Muramatsu nodded repeatedly. His garment factory was not large and could not follow the path of small profits and quick turnover like large factories. However, he could not get orders from high-end brands, so his business had been lukewarm.
Now that Akina has acquired the factory and is still entrusting it to him for operation, it's already a very good thing.
"Going forward, our brand will primarily focus on children's and women's wear."
After the contract was signed, Akina immediately outlined the next steps in the work.
"I've already drawn a batch of design drafts. Please contact Mr. Yoshimatsu to arrange for a batch to be made for sale."
"Hi!" X2
Ochi Hiroshi has been acquired by Akina and is now working part-time as a distributor.
After chatting about work for a while, Akina noticed that Natsuka was getting a little annoyed, so she ended the conversation.
After Ochi Hiroyo and Factory Manager Muramatsu had both left, she tapped Natsuka's nose:
"I hope this business venture will be a success~ How about Mom makes all the pretty clothes for you to wear in the future, okay?"
"Okay~~" Xia Hua smiled.
Seeing her daughter's adorable appearance, Akina suddenly grinned mischievously:
"How about you use all of Hua Jiang's allowance to buy clothes for Mom from now on?"
"Okay~~"
Little Xia Hua, completely oblivious to the wickedness of human nature, would only respond with a single word no matter what her mother said with a smile. She was utterly unaware that she was already jeopardizing all her future allowance.
"Yoshi, the flower sauce is amazing!"
Akina happily hugged and kissed Natsuka, then went to talk to the other members of Ken-On.
She came to Yanyin today not only to discuss matters related to the clothing factory, but also to discuss her next album.
I actually searched on Zhihu (a Chinese Q&A website), and there really are discussions about this question! There are all sorts of talented people in the world!
(End of this chapter)